Technological Trends Shaping the Future, Thus Forcing Us to Change
As we enter the 21st century, we are rethinking what shaped us in the past, what will shape us now and beyond, and what it means to be human with the advent of artificial intelligence. We are anxiously straining to perceive the world that awaits us and our children in the coming decades.
Above all, the situation, as it stands, requires wisdom to see the big picture, integrate, and go beyond expert knowledge and formal training to connect more closely with nature and new life.
Today, humanity faces three problems that pose existential challenges to our species: (i) nuclear war, (ii) ecological collapse, and (iii) change forced by technologies. We have been discussing the first two topics for a long time, so we perceive enough of their context, the issues and risks they pose for humanity, and ways to cope with them.
Notwithstanding, what technologies will inflict is an open-ended debate. Some of the main concerns about technologies are that they will (a) create a superfluous class of people, (b) lead to the rise of data colonialism, and (c) create a society of ilk of digital dictatorship.
Other issues discussed, in addition to the progression mentioned above, will lead to disruptive and profound societal and economic changes such as (a) increasing technology dependence, (b) changing value definition and management, and emergence of new currency definitions with the use of blockchain, cryptocurrency, tokenization, and CBDC [1], (c) surveillance of society -panoptic society [2], (d) social credit system – classification/ranking of people relative to each other, (e) Big Reset – total control of people.
New Technologies
Never before in a period of transition of humanity have technologies with such depth and breadth developed in concert and pushed boundaries of each other.
In the past, technologies developed outside of us and made our lives easier; some are cars, trains, airplanes, the internet, computers, smartphones, or similar. On the contrary, new technologies are forcing us to change and indeed pose a threat to us.
Previously, machines competed with humans mainly in manual skills. Now, they have begun to compete in cognitive skills. The boundaries between the physical, digital, and biological worlds are vanishing. With climate change, humanity is being dragged into an ever-deepening chaos. Elites are trying to find alternative habitats for our planet.
Changes stimulated by technologies continue accelerating in areas such as big data, the Internet of Things, machine learning, robotics, 3D printing, renewables and new energy technologies, satellite and uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV), or drone technologies.
Adaptation Times of New Applications
Threads, a Twitter alternative platform launched in 2023, reached one million users in one hour. ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence software launched in 2022, reached the one million user level in 5 days (figure 2) and now has more than 100 million users. In June 2023, ChatGPT had 1.6 billion visitors.
What Lies Ahead and Singularity
According to Raymond Kurzweil [3], an analysis of the history of technologies unveil that technological development is exponential, contrary to the traditional sense and intuitive view of society that technology development is linear. "The 21st century will bring 20,000 years of progression instead of 100 years. Gains in areas such as CPU speed will go on ever-increasing exponentially. Moreover, we will witness exponential growth at the rate of the exponential progression of technologies," Kurzweil added.
Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence in a few decades, leading to singularity [4]. According to Bill Joy [5], technological change will be seen so rapidly and profoundly that it will represent a break in the fabric of human history. [6] Remember that technology has always shaped us; what is new today is that we can see its results in a human lifetime [7], and very soon, we will see how technological developments speedily evolve societies.
"We will witness biological and artificial intelligence fusing into ultra-high levels of intelligence expanding outward in the universe," Kurzweil says. [8]
Progress with technologies leads to more problems than it disentangles. [9] Any problem technologies help solve now will inevitably bring about new challenges and issues in the future, and new solutions will await. At the same time, all that happens with technology heralds an epoch radically transforming the unique fabric of life while complications occur in perceiving the flow of events. This period is called VUCA, "Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity."
What Stimulates Exponential Development
The rapid exponential development of technologies is associated with the primary outcomes in the following four areas.
MOORE'S LAW – Processing Capacity – the computer's computing power will double every 18 months: Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder.
BUTTERS' LAW – Communication capacity- the amount of data transmitted by the optical fiber cable will double every nine months: Gerald Butters, president of Lucent Technologies, Optical, Networking Group.
KRYDER'S LAW - Information storage capacity -magnetic disk storage capacity will double every thirteen months: Mark Howard Kryder, CTO, Seagate.
METCALFE'S LAW – The value of a network will increase in proportion to the square (n²) of the number of connected devices in the system (n): George Gilder and Robert Metcalfe (inventor of Ethernet.)
Framing the Notion of Exponential Development
A simulation conducted to understand exponential development revealed several striking results. In the simulation, they assume that Lake Michigan in the USA is empty, and the amount of water filled into the lake doubles every 18 months, as Moore's law explains. The water started flowing into the lake in 1940. However, no water activity was seen until 2015 (75 years). But the lake will suddenly fill up from 2015 to 2025 (10 years). (Figure 3)
This study illustrates the dramatic consequences of the exponential development of technologies and how they will emerge. Many other examples exist to simplify our understanding of exponential development, such as rice and chess boards [11]. As these examples suggest, the technologies' emergence and impact will likely cause a violent and destructive convulsion in all of us.
Congruently, with the exponential development of technologies, costs are decreasing, innovative opportunities are created that were not possible before, the scope of technologies is expanding, their association with each other intensifies, and the boundaries between the physical, digital, and biological worlds are eradicated.
How People Perceive the Change
The impact of the exponential development of technologies on individuals is shocking (Figure 4) because
People perceive new technological developments as linear.
And are accustomed to linear thinking. [13]
People are under the illusion that
Technologies were created for humanity and proactively supported human development.
Technological development will not cause any threat to their daily lives but rather improve it.
They will render us a bright future.
In addition, the chaotic fiction and intricacies of exponential growth surprise, confuse, and challenge people's perceptions of events.
How Companies Perceive the Change
While new technologies appear daily, a wide range of opportunities exists between exponentially developing technologies, their business models, and business models of linear development (shown in Figure 5 with "New opportunity" areas).
If today's companies ignore this area, it tends to expand quickly.
This expanding space of new opportunities is filled by new startups outside of the eco-system that recognize opportunities and use new technologies with innovative and disruptive business models.
For example, traditional companies such as Kodak, Nokia, and Blockbuster have paid a heavy price for not noticing and underestimating this trend, and they have been replaced by electronic camera companies, such as iPhone/Samsung and Netflix.
Threats and Measures
In recent years, although there have been several gaps in the adoption of technologies in different parts of the world, especially in underdeveloped countries, there has been a significant acceleration in the development and adoption of new technologies, especially with artificial intelligence in other regions. This rapid (exponential) technological change radically affects almost every aspect of the economy, society, and culture.
This rapid change also presents challenges in policymaking. Since it can affect labor markets, perpetuate inequalities, and raise ethical issues, it risks revealing governments' and society's inadequate capacities to adapt to the changes brought by new technologies and produce new policies.
It used to be easier to create policy. It is now becoming a blind fight between those who develop the technology and the bureaucrats (i.e., governments) who want to impose rules. For example, we see more confusion created by blockchain applications, rendered as friction between the SEC [15] and technology companies in the USA. Similar problems are likely to arise concerning artificial intelligence.
That's where the promise ends
Varoufakis' recent publication, "Techno Feudalism" [16], delves into the digital age's contemporary social, economic, and political dynamics. It reflects on how prominent technology corporations are swiftly supplanting conventional capitalism, introducing the concept of digital lords, and imbuing the age of techno-feudalism!
According to Lyotard in 'Inhuman,' humanity is in pursuit of enabling thought without the constraints of a physical body. [17]
Historian Yuval Harari imparts insights from the past and issues a caution for the future with the following discourse [18]:
If the future of humanity is decided while we are busy with our internal problems, neither our children nor we will be exempt from the outcomes.
That's not fair, but who said history is fair?
Politicians are pathetic and shallow, unaware that the coming wave will bring their end along with society,
Philosophers are intensely patient; they can argue for another hundred years,
But the engineers could be more patient.
Investors are not at all.
If you don't know what to do with the power to design life, those who know and run the equilibrium won't wait another decade for you to decide or listen to the excuses you have."
Or they are not even aware of your existence anyway.
In Closing
Humanity is at a fork in the road. I wish to have politicians and social institutions aware of the threats of all these changes and will take the necessary measures quickly, albeit that is futile.
I am most apprehensive and sad for our children. It hurts to imagine that they will experience the devastating consequences of the changes the technologies induce since exposing the threat, instilling strength, and preparing them for the new era becomes quite complex as time passes.
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References and notes
[1] CBDC – Central Bank Digital Currency
[2] The Panopticon is an institutional building design with a built-in control system, proposed by the English philosopher and social theorist Jeremy Bentham in the 18th century. In his most influential work, Discipline and Punish, Michel Foucault said, "The Birth of the Prison paints a picture of contemporary society that sometimes resembles George Orwell's 1984." He explores how the government has enforced greater control over our private lives. Today, panoptic society dissociates a particular individual or group and exercises power over them; thus, social media is treated more as a classical form of Panopticon proclivity. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jul/23/panopticon-digital-surveillance-jeremy-bentham
[3] Raymond 'Ray' Kurzweil, American author, inventor, futurist, and Director of Engineering at Google
[4] "Singularity" is the name given to the situation where the concept of time and space disappears beyond the boundary of Black Holes called "Event Horizon." It is the point of no return. It is used with similar meanings in different places. Here, it indicates where machine intelligence takes over human intelligence.
[5] William Nelson Joy is an American computer engineer and venture capitalist. He founded Sun Microsystems and served as Chief Scientist and CTO of the company until 2003.
[6] "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us - Our most powerful 21st-century technologies—robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech—threaten to make endangered human species." Bill Joy - https://www.wired.com/2000/04/joy-2/
[7] By Assoc. Prof. Belgin Aksoy AVESİS - Uludağ Üniversity
[8] "The Kurzweil Library + collections - Tracking breakthroughs in tech, science, and world progress. The Law of Accelerating Returns" https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
[9] The Social Life of Information, John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid, Harvard Business School Publishing 2002
[10] "The Road to Artificial Super Intelligence" https://medium.com/ai-revolution/the-road-to-artificial-super-intelligence-d3db8cff4e79
[11] BBC: Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind COVID-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
[12] Singularity Hub https://singularityhub.com/2016/04/05/how-to-think-exponentially-and-better-predict-the-future/
[13] "The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View" - https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/the-law-of-accelerating-returns - Second part from the beginning
[14] Disruptive Business Models Disappoint until the chaos nexus, deception of linear vs. exponential growth https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Disruptive-Business-Model-Disappoint-as-in_fig1_364639295 - changes made by the author
[15] "Security Exchange Commission"
[16] Ioannis Georgiou "Yanis" Varoufakis is a Greek economist and politician. Since 2018, he has been Secretary-General of Democracy in Europe Movement 2025, a left-wing pan-European political party he co-founded in 2016.
[17] Lyotard, Jean-Francois -The Inhuman Reflections on Time.
[18] Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli intellectual, historian, and professor in the Department of History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" and "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" are two of his books.
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