I was the invited speaker at the International 16th International Conference on Green Energy and Sustainability in Paris, France (please see the details below). The following is the extended version of the content of my speech.
INTRODUCTION
Ladies and gentlemen, it is my pleasure to welcome you all to the 16th International Conference on Green Energy and Sustainability. We know the conference was arranged in a physical environment in Paris, and we are prepared to travel there. However, the unforeseen pandemic forced the organizers to turn it into a webinar and us to make speeches remotely and at a social distance. I appreciate the great opportunity given to me and for making the extra effort to arrange my virtual attendance to share my thoughts with the audience.
I will discuss climate issues during pandemic crises, Industry 4.0 and climate change, renewable energy, especially solar thermal, and the excellent opportunity to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by substituting conventional energy sources. I am dedicating my speech to the members of the 8-Billion Trees Organization fighting against climate change worldwide.
THE PANDEMIC, CLIMATE CHANGE, and OUR RESPONSES
The Coronavirus has been touching every aspect of our lives, and unfortunately, thousands have died or become seriously ill.
In just over a few months, the pandemic caused profound and sustained changes in our behaviors associated with staying home, remote work, and less travel. It has also constrained energy demand globally due to grounded flights, stay-at-home orders, and factories whose operations ceased worldwide. The pandemic has ushered us in an extraordinary flow of events, from closing us in our dwellings, traumatizing the healthcare systems out of strained capacity, ceasing the operation of businesses, and pushing unemployment to the highest levels unforeseen before.
Due to pandemics, Nature joyfully celebrates our absence on the streets. As media reports worldwide, vegetation slowly reclaims cities while deer, foxes, wild pigs, coyotes, and mountain goats roam in towns across the globe. The message is clear that Nature is ready to collaborate and come back. Are we?
There are speculations that the source of the coronavirus outbreak originated in a Wildlife Market in Wuhan, China. The Guardian informs us that we have lost 60% of the animal population and half the world’s rainforests over the last 40 years. Deforestation, habitat destruction, and pollution increase wildlife diseases. CBS News reports that there are over 1.7 million viruses in wildlife, and efforts are being made to identify these viruses to understand future threats to humanity. The message is clear that we’re doing things wrong.
We are dependent on Nature for novel medical treatments. The vast number of natural products or compounds derived from natural products have always been central to various medical studies for new drug development. Thus, Nature has always been at our disposal to cooperate and nurture.
Ecologist Suzanne Simard’s studies showed that trees “talk” to each other. Their needs are communicated, and nutrients are exchanged via a network of underground latticed fungi. She, a scientist at the University of British Columbia, Canada, discovered how the fungal filigrees assist trees in sending signals about environmental progression and change, searching for kith and kin, and transferring their nutrients to neighboring plants even before they die. We have yet to grasp Nature’s language, interdependency, and relevance to our planet.
During the pandemic, the global economic shutdown decreased greenhouse gas emissions more than ever from deliberate human efforts. Lauri Myllyvirta, an economic analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that the pandemic may have reduced emissions in China alone by an estimated 25% in the six weeks following the lockdown from early February to mid-March. It was equivalent to 200 million tons of carbon dioxide –more than half of the entire annual emissions of the UK.
The shocking news in April from the BBC was that US oil prices had turned negative for the first time in history. That means oil producers are paying buyers to take the commodity off their hands over fears that storage capacity could run out. The price of West Texas Intermediate, a standard for US oil, fell as low as minus $37.63 a barrel.
CNBC said oil giant Royal Dutch Shell cut its dividend to shareholders for the first time since World War II following a dramatic oil price drop amid the coronavirus crisis. The board at Shell said it had decided to reduce the oil major’s first-quarter dividend to $0.16 per share, down from $0.47 at the end of 2019. That’s a reduction of 66%.
The global focus is on controlling contagion and delivering a cure for COVID-19 at this fearsome stage. However, there is another predicament we are in, as the International Energy Agency puts it, that is climate change. The effects of Coronavirus are likely to be temporary, but the other global emergency — climate change — is not.
“Covid-19 is the most adverse trauma to the global economy in a century.” Furthermore, “the COVID-19 recession is the first since 1870 to be triggered solely by a pandemic,” says the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report dated June 2020.
The policies to recover countries’ economies from the COVID-19 recession address global health and economic emergencies while not acting ignorant to climate issues and backing them by incentivizing big industries like construction, transport, and energy (oil, gas, and coal-based).
Our worst fear was realized in China, and its CO2 emissions surged in May after the coronavirus lockdown, rising by 4–5% year-on-year in May, according to the analysis of new government data. The bounce in emissions has been speedy, as affirmed in the case of air pollution returning to pre-crisis levels, according to Carbon Brief, a UK-based website covering the latest developments in climate science, climate policy, and energy policy.
The increase in CO2 emissions in China in May was driven by coal power, cement, and other heavy industries, which appear to be recovering faster than other sectors of the economy.
Besides, temperatures in the Siberian Arctic reached record averages in June, with some areas seeing rises of as much as ten °C, according to EU data, as reported by BBC.
Global warming will rise to 1.5 °C on average above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052. According to the Generation Investment LLP 2019 Report and the IPCC special (the SR15) report, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by roughly 7.5 percent per year for the next decade to limit global temperature rise. That’s more than the fall expected this year due to COVID-19.
We know that the increasing population of cities and vast urbanization, the growth in global trade, ever-increasing travel, and logistic needs have accelerated the spread of the Coronavirus. In light of the pandemic, it is time to reconsider our options now to meet the needs of the world’s growing population, such as food, water, and shelter, and to stop the overexploitation of natural resources.
The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization operating under the auspices of the OECD, has pleaded for green stimuli for post-coronavirus recoveries. The hope was that coronavirus effects might help the appeal, as industry actors may have heard it. Similar calls, though, were made in vain during the 2008 economic crisis.
AN OPPORTUNITY CALLS US WITH INDUSTRY 4.0
The threat of COVID-19 stimulates the appreciation of 21st-century technologies to communicate, take advantage of them concerning health, education, online meetings, and other communication needs, and carry on with economic activities. Our context is simultaneously driving us to become reliant on breakthrough technologies and be innovative about using these emerging technologies to create value in new ways in these stressful times.
Industry 4.0 is a new emerging concept chiefly defined by the convergence of Information Technologies and the Technologies involving Operations and Manufacturing. Industry 4.0 allows us to measure, analyze, and build faster and more efficiently, thus addressing the economic (profit), environmental (planet), and social (people) challenges that societies are facing today, from climate change issues to the issues concerning sustainable economic growth.
In parallel, ever-increasing connectivity with intelligent devices, wireless Internet of Things (IoT), 5G, and ever-sizeable data-gathering and analytics capabilities empowered by AI and smart systems have led to a shift toward fully digitalized transformation in the economy. These would help industries to collect and analyze live data and even make decisions based upon that data, including data concerning emissions and climate.
With the call of the cheapest labor cost, moving the manufacturing to countries like China, India, Indonesia, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and East European nations during globalization has been called back to countries where the product demand is with Industry 4.0.
With the help of digitalization and big data analytics in Industry 4.0, climate change will compel us to think more about the ecological footprint of what and how we produce — to ensure that we produce and consume within environmental boundaries.
INDUSTRY 4.0 AND THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY
According to Sira Saccani, Director of Sustainable Production Systems at Climate-KIC, a European organization focused on innovation to avoid climate change, there’s a different potential of IIOT by supporting a form in a circular economic structure and a greener industry. Smart manufacturing and digitalized value chains allow data collection along the material and product lifecycle. Hence, big data analytics discover possibilities for reusing material, i.e., metal and plastic, instead of dumping them in landfills.
These strategies can help establish production processes with zero waste from raw material, net-zero emissions, and 100 percent recycling with multiple lifecycles — the foundation of a circular economy. “There will be a need for innovative product concepts where materials are available for high-quality recycling across different industries. Product designers are required to have a new design concept and product design process,” adds Saccani.
With the advances in Industry 4.0 technologies, entire supply chains move to cloud systems. Product designers will use open-access data channels on cloud systems to integrate secondary materials from all diverse industries into their design process. It is a new way of value creation and design thinking.
Open Industry 4.0 Platforms now deliver real-time information on losses in production processes, such as material and energy consumption, quality, production issues, and human failure. Addressing these losses will help industries collaborate and significantly lower CO2 emissions.
Electronics is one industry that uses the Open Industry 4.0 Platforms in a circular economic production model. The electronics industry needs rare materials and emission-liable metals that may not be sustained by additional mining in another part of the world. The alternative option to source raw material is to use the secondary raw material extracted from recycled electronic equipment, so-called urban mining by Prof. Dr. Alessandra Bonoli, a circular economy expert from the University of Bologna.
A circular economic model for moving towards a low-carbon future in countries with Industry 4.0 adapted economies could have an economic model that works regeneratively. It exhibits new forms of collaboration and uses open-source platforms to create social value in a circular economic model.
INDUSTRY 4.0 AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
According to the International Energy Agency’s Efficient World Scenario, until 2035, the estimated energy efficiency tapped from industrial sectors is about 35% of the total potential global energy savings.
Starting with 5G and wireless IoT, factories can regulate heating, cooling, and power consumption efficiencies to reduce CO2 emissions and lower the cost of heating, cooling, and electricity.
Regarding logistics and growing supply chain hubs, autonomous Electric Transportation, vehicles powered by electricity, and vehicles using 5G can be crucial enablers in reducing transport emissions in the logistics industry.
“THE SUN HAD CREATED THE LIFE ON EARTH,” and THERE IS MORE TO IT
The Australian Aborigines believed that the Sun had created life on Earth. They illustrated the Sun as a mother that gives life to the sleeping spirits as a human mother gives life to a soul.
The Sun’s radiation in light form and other types delivers an estimated 384.6 yottawatts of energy - 3.846E+20 MW or 3.846E+17 GW. We can survive on Earth because Earth’s atmosphere blocks excessive solar radiation.
The solar radiation energy density is approximately 1,368 W/m² in the upper reaches of our atmosphere. It drops to around 1,000 W/m² at the Earth’s surface for a surface vertical to the Sun’s beams at sea level on a clear day (this is lower in some regions and higher in the other areas of the planet).
Capturing the light (visible radiation) for direct photovoltaic conversion into electricity or besides visible radiation, collecting longwave infrared radiation (invisible radiation, near, medium, and far-infrared) as thermal energy by new solar thermal systems for electricity, space heating, water heating, or cooling helps to harvest solar energy.
The total worldwide gross production of electricity in 2016 was 25,082 TWh. The hourly average global power plant output is 2.86 TW/hours. [1]
For instance, Turkey is 783,562 km²; the total average sun radiation falling per square meter in Turkey at noon is an average of 784 TWh/m² -applicable to any country. [2]
So, the average sun radiation falling per square meter in Turkey at noon is 273 times the hourly production of world power plants, or 783 divided by 2.86.
From another window, the annual electricity demand is about 300 TWh, and the hourly is 0.034 TWh. [3]
So, the average amount of sun radiation falling per square meter at noon equals 23,029 times the hourly electricity demand in Turkey -783 divided by 0.034.
Let’s clarify: Turkey's solar energy hits per square meter are 273 times the hourly production of world power plants and 23,029 times Turkey’s hourly electricity needs.
These are gross numbers. The PV practical efficiency is around 20%. Solar systems don’t even capture most energy from the Sun’s rays. Nevertheless, it is changing. New Solar Thermal technologies have the potential to provide a more reliable source of power in the form of electricity than Solar PV. Besides, thermal energy for heating, cooling, and cooking is at a premium.
The new solar thermal solutions with full-spectrum collectors (visible + infrared), thermal storage, Thermal Electric Generator Seebeck (TEG) devices, and an absorption chiller can simultaneously and sustainably meet the electricity, cooling, and heating (space heat, hot water, cooking) needs of each home in a community without intermittent interruptions, unlike wind and PV.
“The solar thermal systems with ultra-high temperature thermal energy storage — with minimal loss over months, and 30-year life eliminates the intermittence from Renewable Energy. Stored thermal energy drives TEG generators with electric efficiencies of 30–40%, compared to PV ≈at 20%. Total solar energy system efficiency with thermal energy may exceed 90%,” says Virgil Perryman of Perryman Technologies.
The most significant impediment to sustained economic and social growth is the pervasive global energy poverty problem—a steady, clean, and safe power supply shortage. According to the International Energy Agency, 1.2 billion people around the world cannot access electricity, and more than 2.7 billion people lack clean cooking facilities.
Solar Energy has the potential to offer a solution to energy poverty on Earth while helping with climate change and global warming; as the Australian Aborigines put it, all we need is Sun’s Motherhood to give life to the sleeping spirits.
IN CLOSING
We are much closer to a tipping point in our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on Earth. The changes in the Earth’s climate and the destruction of Nature’s order are becoming glaringly apparent. The Economist warns, “Even emissions slashed today won’t slow global warming until mid-century.” Besides, having 1.7 million viruses lurking in the wild that could cause pandemics is profoundly problematic.
These are all indicators that we’re on the edge of another global disaster. It’s just that we don’t know yet what the collapse will look like or how it will break. If we keep turning a deaf ear to these signs, long-term irreversible changes concerning life on our planet are inescapable.
Looking back at history, future generations may view the pandemic as a particular historical event and ponder whether or not humanity missed the opportunity for a productive and cooperative response. Critical tests await industries, governments, and humanity again for the choices of re-engagement with the green policies to continue mitigating inexorable global warming relieved during the pandemic. We know that concerted efforts are needed.
The 19th-century German philosopher Friedrich Hegel famously said once that “the owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of the dusk.” This means philosophy comes to understand historical events just as they die out. Another meaning is that the hope of rescue offered by dusk gives us the strength to stand firm as time passes. Thus, we shall see a new world order after the pandemic.
Industry 4.0 is an innovation platform and has the potential to lead the green revolution by steering sectors on the right track to meet their 2030 goals. However, we must implement these technologies and take the necessary steps to mitigate climate issues and global warming.
Fossil fuels currently supply most of the global electric and engine power needs; besides, they are the culprit behind almost all of our pollution issues, from greenhouse emissions to global warming, and are non-renewable with limited supply. However, the Sun offers abundant, accessible, clean energy that exceeds our needs. We must find ways to take full advantage of it.
Everything in Nature strives to preserve and maintain its existence by a principle Spinoza called ‘conatus.’ Consequently, humans endeavor to continue in their being; therefore, we have hope for the future and leave the planet a better place than we found it.
Thank you.
Turgut A.
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Notes:
[1] 25,082 TWh ÷ 365 days/year ÷ 24 hours/day = 2.86 TWh
[2] i.e., Turkey is 783,562 km², so, 1,000 w/m² x 1,000,000 m2/km² x 783,562 km² = 783,562,000,000,000 Watts = 783.562 (~784) TWh/m²
[3] 300TWh ÷ 365 days ÷ 24 hour = 0,03424 TWh
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